Job Market Brightens as Unemployment Claims Sink - January 2012

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The outlook for the job market is looking brighter.

Far fewer people are seeking unemployment benefits than just three months ago — a sign that layoffs are falling sharply.

The number of people applying for benefits fell last week to 366,000, the fewest since May 2008. If the number stayed that low consistently, it would likely signal that hiring is strong enough to lower unemployment.

The unemployment rate is now 8.6 percent. The last time applications were this low, the rate was 5.4 percent.

The big question is whether fewer layoffs will translate into robust hiring. It hasn't happened yet, even though job growth has increased in recent months.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment applications, which smooths out fluctuations, dropped last week to 387,750. That's the lowest four-week since July 2008. The four-week average has declined in 10 of the past 12 weeks.

"Labor market conditions have taken a turn for the better in recent weeks," Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays Capital, said in a note to clients. "Payroll growth should improve in the coming months."

Separately, the prices companies pay for factory and farm goods rose 0.3 percent last month. The figure was pushed up by higher food and pharmaceutical prices. But energy prices barely rose, keeping inflation in check.

In the 12 months ending in November, wholesale prices have increased 5.7 percent, the Labor Department said Thursday. It's the smallest year-over-year increase since March.

The department's producer price index measures price changes before they reach consumers.

A mixed picture of manufacturing emerged from other reports Thursday. Factory output fell in November for the first time in seven months, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturers made fewer cars, electronics and appliances.

But some economists noted that auto sales rose in November, suggesting that production will rebound. And the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and New York said manufacturing expanded in their regions. Manufacturing has been a key source of growth this year.

Still, the U.S. manufacturing sector could weaken in 2012. Growth is slowing in Asia. Europe is likely already in recession. And U.S. companies are reducing their investment in machinery and other large equipment.

The downward trend in applications suggests that companies are cutting fewer workers as the economy picks up. It also comes as Congress is wrangling over whether to extend emergency unemployment benefits, which are set to expire at the end of this year.

Growth may top 3 percent in the final three months of this year, according to many economists. That would be up from 2 percent in the July-September quarter.

Other recent reports suggest the job market is improving a bit. In the past three months, net job gains have averaged 143,000 a month. That compares with an average of 84,000 in the previous three months.

In November, employers added 120,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent from 9 percent. That was the lowest unemployment rate in 2½ years. But about half that decline occurred because many of the unemployed gave up looking for work. When people stop looking for a job, they're no longer counted as unemployed.

Employers posted fewer jobs in October than in the previous month, the government said Tuesday, though the decline was modest. Job openings have risen by about 35 percent since the recession officially ended in June 2009. But they're still about 25 percent below pre-recession levels.

More than 7.4 million people are receiving unemployment benefits, according to Thursday's report. About 2 million will lose their benefits by mid-February if the emergency program expires.

Lawmakers differ over how long benefits should last. The House passed a Republican bill Tuesday that would renew emergency aid but reduce the maximum duration to 59 weeks from the current 99 weeks.

Democrats want to keep the full 99 weeks. The measure is part of broader legislation in the Democratic-led Senate that would also extend a Social Security tax cut.

By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Associated Press

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Refinancing Gets Even More Attractive - January 2012

Homeowners who have resisted the urge to refinance their mortgages until now could be rewarded for their willpower. Mortgage rates have fallen to new lows—and banks are rolling out incentives to win business.

Economic uncertainty in Europe and slow growth in the U.S. are prompting investors to pile into ultrasafe U.S. Treasurys. That, in turn, is pushing down mortgage rates, which are tied to Treasurys.

The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to 4.05% for the week ended Dec. 23, the lowest in 60 years, according to HSH Associates, a mortgage-data firm. And rates on jumbo mortgages—private loans that in most parts of the country are larger than $417,000—also have hit new lows, averaging 4.61%.
"It's hard to argue rates will get much lower than they are today," says Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Los Angeles.

That's good news for homeowners. A person who refinanced a $400,000 30-year mortgage in February would pay an interest rate of 5.04% on average, according to HSH Associates, and fork over $2,157 a month; at the current rate of 4.05%, he'd save $236 per month, or $2,830 per year.

What's more, demand for refinancing is declining, since many homeowners already took advantage of lower mortgage rates. Applications for refinancing are 17% below this year's peak in September, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

That and other factors have prompted some lenders to offer incentives to win new business—particularly regional and community banks, which are focusing more on jumbo mortgages, says Stu Feldstein, president at SMR Research, which tracks the mortgage market.

The discounts can be sizable. Regional bank Valley National Bank charges homeowners in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania a flat fee of $499 for closing costs on mortgages as large as $1 million. Since average closing costs on a refinance run about 2% of the total loan amount, a person with an $800,000 mortgage could save about $15,500.

A spokesman for the bank says it is aggressively marketing the discount in part to bring in more customers.

While many lenders don't refinance mortgages that are larger than about $2 million, Union Bank—which has branches in California, Oregon and Washington—refinances up to $4 million at no extra cost. (Many banks that refinance multimillion-dollar mortgages tack up to an extra quarter of a percentage point on the interest rate.)

Since November, Union Bank has also allowed borrowers to roll the costs of a refinance, like the appraisal fee and loan processing fee, into the mortgage. And borrowers whose original mortgage is from Union Bank don't have to provide all of the income documentation that other customers do in order to refinance.
In part, the bank's goal is to develop relationships with high-net-worth clients, says Stuart Bernstein, national production manager of residential lending at Union Bank.

Despite the incentives, many would-be applicants remain sidelined because they can't meet the long list of qualifications.

The home-equity requirement is one of the toughest hurdles, says Mr. Feldstein. Homeowners with at least 10% home equity make the cut, but people with less have a tougher time.

Borrowers with 10% to 19% equity in their home usually have to buy private mortgage insurance, whose cost varies based on many factors, including their credit score. A borrower with 15% equity and a FICO credit score above 720 could pay 0.44% of the total loan amount, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH Associates. On an $800,000 loan that would be $3,520 a year—eating into the potential savings of a refinance.

In December, the federal government rolled out a revamped version of the Home Affordable Refinance Program with relaxed home-equity requirements, to allow more borrowers to refinance. To qualify, the current mortgage must be owned or guaranteed by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, and borrowers need to be mostly current on payments.

For regular refinancing, applicants need a FICO credit score of at least 740 to get the best rates, says Mr. Gumbinger. And they must provide copious documentation, including at least two years' worth of tax returns and proof of income as well as recent statements for assets such as retirement and brokerage accounts.

After clearing those hurdles, you might wait about 60 days for refinancing to be completed, says Mr. Gumbinger—longer than the typical 45 days. While some lenders are offering 60-day rate locks for free, others charge a quarter of a percentage point of the total loan amount for the service. On an $800,000 mortgage, that's $2,000.

Or you could opt to take your chances with a free 45-day lock and hope rates don't spike between day 46 and the date your loan closes. With the euro zone still in economic crisis and global investors rushing to the safety of U.S. Treasurys, housing-market analysts say it could be at least six months before rates rise significantly.

By AnnaMaria Andriotis, The Wall Street Journal

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